UCF Graduate Finds Flood Risk Models Miss Inland Poverty

The first graduate of the University of Central Florida’s integrative anthropological sciences doctoral program has published findings that challenge standard flood-risk assessments in Florida.

Nilver Tovar-Ospina, a 2026 PhD recipient with a concentration in environmental anthropology, examined how sea-level rise and flooding affect communities in Miami-Dade County. His dissertation, Architectures of Flooding: History, Power, and the Production of Flood Risk in Miami-Dade County, argues that flood vulnerability is not solely a natural hazard but a condition shaped by historical infrastructure, funding, and environmental transformation.

Tovar-Ospina’s research combined ethnography, interviews, participant observation, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to map actual flood experiences against official models. He found that high-income, tourist-focused areas received substantial flood-protection infrastructure, including sea walls and improved drainage. These investments shielded many coastal residents from recurrent flooding, creating a gap between modeled exposure and lived reality.

In contrast, lower-income communities farther inland continued to experience decades of recurrent flooding. Tovar-Ospina noted that these residents often received short-term "palliative solutions" such as sandbags, while requesting longer-term infrastructure adaptations. His work suggests that elevation and proximity to the coast do not fully explain the distribution of flood risk in the county.

The researcher’s work has received recognition at national and international levels. In 2026, he received the Judges’ Choice Award at UCF’s Student Scholar Symposium and the Best Paper Presentation Award at the International Conference on Environmental Anthropology and Sustainability in Paris. His peer-reviewed article, "Tangible and Intangible Impacts of Flooding in Miami-Dade County: A Human-Centered Analysis," appeared in Human Ecology.

Tovar-Ospina also received the 2026 Laura Bassi Scholarship for his book manuscript, Architectures of Flooding: Unequal Ground in a Drowning County. He was selected as one of nine international participants for the 2025 Climate Politics and Autocratization Conference at the University of Bergen in Norway.

Tovar-Ospina stated that communities must be included in climate policy discussions to ensure their specific concerns are addressed. He noted that Florida and other coastal areas require more environmental anthropologists to integrate the knowledge of impacted communities into adaptation strategies.