Wyoming Election: Federal margins shrink despite GOP wins
New data indicates a 15-point shift toward Democrats in federal races, with young voters driving the change.
By James Mitchell ·
Wyoming voters shifted 15 points toward Democrats in federal elections this year, even as Republicans retained control of all statewide offices.
The New York Times analyzed election data and found that margins for Republican candidates narrowed compared to 2024. In the U.S. House race, Republican Chuck Gray defeated Democrat Lisa Kinney by 25 points. That is down from the 47-point margin Harriet Hageman secured in 2022. Hageman also won the U.S. Senate race by about 30 points against James Byrd, a smaller victory than the 45-point margin she achieved against Lynnette Grey Bull two years ago.
The shift was most pronounced among younger and nonwhite demographics. The New York Times reported that voters aged 18 to 29 swung 26 points toward the Democratic Senate candidate and 39 points toward the Democratic House candidate. Ryan Williamson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Wyoming, noted that the statewide top line holds up, but he advised caution regarding the subgroup breakdowns.
Williamson explained that the New York Times survey included only six Wyoming voters out of 25,236 total participants. He said the specific numbers for gender and age groups likely reflect the national model applied to local data rather than unique state trends. For instance, he pointed out that the reported 17-point swing for men and 11-point swing for women in Wyoming almost exactly matched the national averages of 18 and 13 points.
The election results alter the roles of Wyoming’s incoming federal delegation. Sen. John Barrasso, who served as the majority whip in 2025, will move to the minority whip position. Williamson said the new role focuses on preserving the status quo rather than enacting change. Hageman, now a junior senator, may lose access to the prime committee positions she held in the House, including her chairmanship of the Water, Wildlife and Fisheries subcommittee. Gray, a former secretary of state, enters the House as a freshman member in a minority party where influence is limited.
Williamson noted that the incoming Democratic majority in the House has 35 to 40 votes to spare before they must make concessions to the minority. He described the shift as historically large but said its full implications remain uncertain. The University of Wyoming will hold a discussion on these outcomes on Monday.
Williamson, along with professors Andrew Garner and Jim King, will present findings from the 2026 Wyoming Election Year Survey at 5:30 p.m. on Monday. The event is scheduled for the Wyoming Union Yellowstone Ballroom on campus in Laramie.
