CEO Confidence Drops to 14-Month Low Despite Midterm Relief

U.S. chief executives reported a sharp drop in confidence this week, marking the lowest level in 14 months.

The November CEO Confidence Index poll, conducted by Chief Executive, shows current business conditions rated at 5.3 out of 10. This figure represents an 8 percent decline from October. The 12-month forecast also fell 7 percent to 5.4. The survey was fielded from November 3 to 5 among 435 U.S. CEOs.

Respondents who completed the questionnaire after midterm election results began arriving on the evening of November 3 provided slightly higher scores. Post-election respondents rated current conditions at 5.5 and one-year forecasts at 5.6. Pre-election respondents averaged 5.2 for current conditions and 5.3 for forecasts. The difference of three-tenths of a point within hours contrasts with the historical average monthly shift of two-tenths of a point.

Executives attributed the slight lift to the removal of political uncertainty. One CEO from a family-owned manufacturer stated, “The midterm election is over and the balance of power is in place. At least we know what we should probably do.” Another executive noted that the chaotic initiatives of the President would be balanced by a more functional Congress. Some respondents hoped the results would ease trade tensions and help end the war in Iran.

Not all executives shared this optimism. A portion of post-election respondents predicted deterioration in business conditions over the next 12 months. Thirty percent of those responding after the results forecast a decline, compared with 25 percent of those responding earlier. One CEO predicted conditions would drop from 3 to 1 out of 10 due to political gridlock. Another described the election results as creating uncertainty and gridlock.

The current low matches the index level from September 2025, when tariffs and shifting government policies pressured sentiment. At that time, the index stood at 5.1. In November 2025, CEOs had forecast conditions would reach 6.2 by now. The current 5.3 reading is roughly 15 percent below that earlier expectation. The 12-month forecast of 5.4 is only 2 percent above the current assessment, a pattern that has persisted for most of 2026.

Thirty-nine percent of CEOs now expect business conditions to remain unchanged over the next 12 months, up from 30 percent in October. Despite weaker overall sentiment, growth expectations remain strong. Six out of 10 CEOs anticipate U.S. economic growth over the next six months, up from 53 percent in October. Post-election respondents were more optimistic on this point, with 63 percent expecting growth compared to 56 percent of pre-election respondents.

Corporate plans show continued investment. Sixty-seven percent expect to finish 2026 with higher revenues than in 2025, down from 73 percent in September. Sixty-two percent expect higher profits, consistent with September levels. For 2027, 80 percent forecast higher revenues and 74 percent forecast higher profits. Nearly eight in 10 CEOs anticipate higher operating expenses next year, mostly under 10 percent. Fifty-four percent plan to increase capital spending, and 52 percent expect to expand headcount.