Economists Project 59,000 New Jobs as Holiday Hiring Boosts October

The U.S. economy is expected to show a modest pickup in hiring next week, with economists forecasting the addition of 59,000 jobs in October. This figure would mark a nearly twofold increase from the 29,000 roles added in September, according to a survey by Dow Jones. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the data at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, November 6.

Despite the projected job growth, wage gains are expected to fall short of price increases. Annual wage growth is forecast at 2.9%, which trails the 3.7% inflation rate recorded in September. This gap has persisted since March, leaving workers with less purchasing power. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%.

The labor market faces pressure from the artificial intelligence boom and ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Publicly traded tech companies are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in AI and data centers, which is driving up consumer prices for goods ranging from laptops to game consoles. Meanwhile, the stalemate in the war with Iran and the conflict between Ukraine and Russia continue to push energy prices higher.

Election results on Tuesday added to the economic uncertainty. In an NBC News exit poll, 75% of voters described the state of the economy as "not so good or poor," ranking it as their top concern. On Thursday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced their worst one-day declines since April 2025. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 6%, erasing more than $2 trillion in market value.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, noted that low turnover rates and fewer people entering the labor force are limiting job mobility for workers. Shruti Mishra of Bank of America expects some benefit from strong business investment in the third quarter. She anticipates that spending on data centers will support employment in construction and manufacturing through the buildout of infrastructure and production of AI equipment.

The BLS reported that manufacturing jobs rose by 9,000 in September and have increased by 72,000 since a low in December 2025. Construction jobs grew by 11,000 last month, maintaining an average of 10,000 new positions per month over the past year. However, Citi economist Veronica Clark warned that tighter financial conditions could soften labor demand in sectors like residential construction.

Seasonal hiring provides a potential offset to these challenges. The Indeed Hiring Lab reported that October marked the best start for seasonal hiring in several years. A group of large employers is posting fewer seasonal jobs than a year ago but is hiring more non-seasonal part-time workers. Andy Challenger of Challenger, Gray & Christmas said retailers are relying on automation and existing staff before adding new seasonal hires as tariffs affect supply chains.