Latino voters flip back to Democrats in 2026 midterms
After backing Trump in 2024, Latino communities in key states shifted left, helping Democrats retake Congress and state legislatures.
By James Mitchell ·
Ninety percent. That is the approximate margin by which some predominantly Latino counties in the Rio Grande Valley rejected Republican candidates this year, a stark reversal from the 10 to 15 point advantages Trump secured there in 2024.
The shift marked a decisive return for a demographic that had moved toward the right in the previous election cycle. In 2020, Donald Trump received about 36% of the Latino vote. By 2024, that figure jumped to nearly half. This year, that advantage was erased as the group voted heavily for Democrats in states like Texas and Arizona.
Hector Sanchez Barba, president and CEO of Mi Familia Vota, attributed the change to Republican policy moves that followed their 2024 victory. He said the party enacted measures that incited fear within the community after initially taking Latino support for granted. “They came after us,” Barba said. “It’s a very deep wound. What they have done to Latinos is something the community will not forget.”
The voting patterns in Texas proved critical for Democratic gains. Sen.-elect James Talarico and Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa relied on this support to secure their positions. The shift also contributed to Democrats retaking control of Congress, according to Mark Hugo Lopez, director of race and ethnicity research at the Pew Research Center. Lopez noted that while other groups, including Black voters and white voters without college degrees, also moved left, the Latino turnaround was a defining feature of the results.
In the Rio Grande Valley, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar won re-election by 36 points. He secured victory in a district that Texas Republicans had redrawn to disadvantage Democrats. Lopez stated that Latino voters certainly contributed to these wins at both the state and federal levels.
Individual voters cited economic conditions as a primary motivator. D’Anna Sauceda, a 22-year-old voter from Phoenix, Arizona, did not vote in 2024. She said her economic situation had deteriorated during the first two years of Trump’s second term. She currently lives with her mother and cannot afford to attend college. “The people, we have to take the power back,” Sauceda said on Election Day. “It’s not all in Donald Trump. We also have power ourselves.”
Alejandra Gomez, executive director of the grassroots group LUCHA, said the results show that Latino communities turn out in force. Her organization has worked to build voting power in Arizona since 2010. She said voters expect the new lawmakers to fight for specific policy changes, including a higher minimum wage, paid family medical leave, and eviction protections. For the first time in generations, Arizona’s legislature is likely to be controlled entirely by Democrats.
About a quarter of Arizona’s electorate is Latino. Gomez noted that the state’s political dynamics have shifted dramatically. “The day after Election Day, I was completely teary all day,” Gomez said.
Jaime Molera, a Republican political strategist and former state education official, said both parties have struggled to build a consistent Latino base. He advised Republicans to end the war in Iran, stop tariffs, and adopt a softer tone on immigration to regain trust. “Securing the border is one thing,” Molera said. “But ripping apart families, that’s another.”
Molera pointed to the long-term engagement used by past Republican leaders like John McCain and Jon Kyl to win Latino support. He said that trust is built over years, not just during a campaign season. With Arizona remaining a presidential battleground, the party that can secure this demographic in 2028 will hold a major advantage.
