Lula claims fourth term in Brazil after reversing first-round deficit

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured a fourth nonconsecutive term as president of Brazil, defeating far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a runoff that remained tight until the final hours. Officials declared the results shortly after midnight UK time on October 26, 2026. Lula received 51.79% of the vote, while Bolsonaro captured 48.21%, a difference of approximately 4.3 million votes among Brazil's 159 million voters.

The outcome marked a dramatic reversal from the first round held earlier in October. In that initial ballot, Bolsonaro received 56.1 million votes, or 47.03%, compared to Lula’s 53.8 million, or 45.16%. Since Brazilian democracy resumed in 1985, a first-round runner-up had never successfully overtaken the leader in the second ballot. Polls tightened in the weeks between the two votes, with the gap narrowing to mere fractions of a percentage point before the final count.

Digital mobilization played a central role in Lula’s comeback. The first round recorded a record abstention rate of 21%, a pattern common among lower-income voters who typically support Lula. Progressives responded by organizing millions of users through a WhatsApp channel named "Lula's army," which distributed daily instructions for creating viral supportive content. Lula, who recently acquired his first smartphone, began posting on Instagram and TikTok. His digital reach surpassed Bolsonaro’s for the first time, while the Bolsonaro campaign faced scandals, including a 2020 boat party allegation reported by the magazine Piauí.

External factors also influenced the race. President Donald Trump called the trial of former president Jair Bolsonaro a "witch-hunt" and imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports, though he did not formally endorse Flávio Bolsonaro. Lula positioned himself as a defender against what he termed "colonial" designs by the United States. He pursued a multilateral foreign policy, balancing relations with the US, China, and Russia, and declined invitations to join a Latin American military coalition against drug cartels.

The election result has immediate implications for environmental policy. Deforestation in the Amazon fell by more than 70% under Lula’s current administration, which also cracked down on illegal mining. Guardian correspondent Tom Phillips noted that environmental issues received limited attention during the final debate, as voters focused on the economy and public security. Lula now faces a newly elected congress featuring a record number of right-wing politicians who are often hostile to environmental causes.

Flávio Bolsonaro has refused to concede the defeat. He cited the decision to extend voting hours by two hours, a move both campaigns had requested for different reasons, and stated it was "impossible to concede the election result." Phillips expects the challenge to fail, noting that world leaders are already recognizing Lula’s victory. Bolsonaro may travel to the United States to avoid ongoing criminal investigations. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.