Ontario Gas Prices Dip After U.S. Election Shifts Oil Market Outlook

Gas prices in Ontario are expected to stabilize following the U.S. midterm election, with regular gasoline in the Greater Toronto Area projected to cost 160.9 cents per litre on Sunday morning.

Energy markets reacted to the Democratic Party victory by pricing in a potential check on President Donald Trump’s conflict with Iran, a war that drove fuel costs upward since March. Dan McTeague, head of Canadians for Affordable Energy, stated that lower prices are likely to persist for the coming week.

McTeague predicts gasoline will rise by one cent per litre on Saturday before dropping by one cent on Sunday. Diesel prices will follow a similar pattern but with a larger swing, increasing by four cents on Saturday and decreasing by two cents on Sunday. This places the Sunday morning diesel price in the GTA at 236.9 cents per litre.

The current pricing structure stems from the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran on Feb. 28. Iran retaliated by targeting Middle Eastern nations hosting U.S. troops and attacking shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency reports that the strait handles 25% of global seaborne oil trade and 19% of liquefied natural gas.

The conflict has repeatedly disrupted supply chains through blockades of Iranian vessels and ports. Although these blockades were lifted and reinstated during intermittent fighting, the resulting supply choke has kept global oil prices elevated. Because Canadian oil is traded in U.S. dollars on the global market, domestic prices mirror international fluctuations even for oil purchased within Canada.

McTeague advises drivers to purchase fuel after 6 p.m. in the GTA, a time when stations typically reduce profit margins. He noted that prices are generally lower outside major cities, suggesting those traveling out of town should fill up before arriving in urban centers.

No drastic changes are anticipated in the near term as markets hold steady. Sunday’s lower prices are expected to remain in place through Monday and Tuesday.