Israel faces weeks of coalition talks after Netanyahu loses majority

Israel’s parliamentary system requires a minimum of 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset to form a governing majority. With that threshold in mind, the final results released early Friday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc fell short of that number.

Netanyahu’s coalition won 53 seats in Tuesday’s election. The main opposition bloc captured 48 seats, while Arab-led parties secured the remaining 19. This is a historic showing for the Arab-led groups. Netanyahu remains the prime minister for now, but his government is technically out of power until a new one is sworn in.

The path forward involves complex negotiations between parties with very different platforms. These range from ultra-Orthodox Jewish groups to secular parties and Arab-led factions. Centrist politician Yair Lapid noted on X that the truly hard part of the process has just begun. He asked Israelis to remain patient while these talks unfold.

President Isaac Herzog will formally task a candidate with forming a government once the results are certified and submitted to him next Wednesday. That candidate will likely be the leader of the party that received the most votes, which is Netanyahu, or whoever the party leaders believe is best suited for the role. If multiple attempts to build a coalition fail, Israel faces a new election early next year. Herzog said this week he will do everything in his power to avoid a repeat vote.

Tensions rose in the hours before the final results were announced. Netanyahu and his Likud party amplified claims that Arab-led parties had stolen the election, potentially with foreign assistance. The opposition accused Netanyahu of demonizing the Arab population, which makes up 20 percent of the country. They pointed to high voter turnout driven by outrage over far-right allies like national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose party lost seats.

Netanyahu posted on X on Friday asserting that it is forbidden to form a coalition with Arab parties. He suggested it would be treasonous for his chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, to join with them. In a letter to the Shin Bet security agency, Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, head of the election committee, said he had serious suspicions of foreign interference but could not verify the claims. He asked the agency to investigate.

Israeli media reported that members of Likud were accusing Qatar, a country many Israelis view as a patron of Hamas, of involvement. Qatar called the allegations ridiculous and dangerous. Dean Livne, the acting director general of the election commission, warned that reports about the investigation had been entirely unfounded. He stated that the issue does not affect the final results or concern any particular sector of the population.

The Shin Bet said its investigation was not meant to cast aspersions on a section of the population that exercised its right to vote in a democratic and lawful manner. The elections committee also wrote to a member of parliament that allegations of systematic violations of electoral integrity are baseless. The committee wants findings from the Shin Bet within a week.

The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in on Nov. 10. Once it convenes, Eisenkot’s bloc could join forces with the Arab parties to elect a new Knesset speaker. This would give them control over the parliamentary agenda and potentially allow them to pass legislation before a new government is formed. Hundreds of Israelis have been holding rallies urging Eisenkot to partner with the Arab-led parties. This alliance has only happened briefly once before, in 2021.

If Netanyahu loses office, critics say it will trigger a cascade of events he has sought to avoid. He would face accountability for yearslong corruption allegations. An inquiry would also likely begin into security failures leading up to the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, 2023.