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Netanyahu Bloc Trails as Israel Heads for Coalition Bargaining

Counting of about 500,000 absentee ballots was expected to finish Thursday evening, with no major shift anticipated in the seat projections.

By Sofia Ramirez ·

Illustration for: Netanyahu Bloc Trails as Israel Heads for Coalition Bargaining
Illustration generated for this article, not a news photograph.

Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud party won the most votes in Israel's election but his bloc fell short of a majority, leaving coalition negotiations to determine who governs next. Local media projected 53 parliament seats for Netanyahu's bloc, 48 for opposition parties and 19 for Arab-led parties that also seek to replace him. A 61-seat majority is needed to control the 120-seat Knesset.

Final results were due as early as Thursday evening after about 500,000 absentee ballots were counted from military personnel, diplomats, prisoners, hospital patients and others. Those ballots are not expected to change the outcome substantially.

Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief and Netanyahu's main rival, said in his first public remarks since addressing supporters early Wednesday that he wants a government serving all Israelis and reflecting the will of the people. He has said he is open to working with Arab-led parties to reach a majority. The Joint List, one of those parties, said it was open to political cooperation and cited an unprecedented show of strength, along with Jewish voters willing to swim against the tide of racism.

Small rallies took place overnight in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in support of a coalition that includes Arab-led parties. No Arab party had joined a coalition government before 2021, and that arrangement was brief.

Likud has accused Arab-led parties of stealing the election and asked the election committee to investigate, without providing specific evidence. The committee said the number of reported irregularities in what it described as a relatively calm election was low.

President Yitzhak Hertzog will task someone with forming the next government next week. The choice has traditionally gone to the leader of the party with the most votes, but that is not required. Hertzog signaled Wednesday he wants to avoid another election, a position Eisenkot has also taken. If a government cannot be formed after multiple attempts, Israel would face a new vote early next year.

Among the issues at stake is whether the fast-growing ultra-Orthodox population should remain exempt from compulsory military service. Arab citizens, who make up 20 per cent of Israel's population, have expressed hope of change. Brosli Elias, a resident of Nazareth, said: "God willing, we will have something for us in the government, something that will bring us our rights."

The Trump administration has spoken of new attacks on Iran after the midterm elections on November 3rd. Some experts have said Netanyahu could use a renewed war to argue for a unity government under his leadership, which could delay a public inquiry into the security failures behind the Hamas-led assault of October 7th, 2023, that sparked the war in Gaza.

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